SOUTH HILLS COMMAND CENTER – Major League teams and parospect hounds have valued prospects more and more over the last two decades, particularly as the price of free agents have skyrocketed. Never has it been more imperative, especially for mid- and small-market teams. to build around cheap, productive, homegrown talent.
But have teams begun to overvalue prospects? To see a team trade a top 10 overall prospect like the Royals did, sending Wil Myers to acquire borderline ace James Shields, is extremely rare. There’s been only a handful of top 10 overall prospects to be traded over the last decade.
But if you examine this study , which I have cited here before, you wonder why more prospects are not flipped. You wonder if the Pirates really ought to consider being buyers, and not buyers in an insignificant way, like trading for a fifth-starter or middle reliever at the deadline, but in a big way.
Continue reading Should the Pirates be buyers of impact talent? Taillon for Lee, would you do it?
SOUTH HILLS COMMAND CENTER – The advanced numbers and the sabermetric community contend Pirates lefty Jeff Locke cannot sustain the performance he has authored to date. After seven shutout innings against the Astros on Sunday, Locke has lowered his ERA to 2.73.
Locke continues to strike out too few batters and walk too many. He’s throwing the same three-pitch mix as in prior years – according to Fangraphs.com – and the same three-pitch percentages as he did last year when he struggled.
His ERA is a sterling 2.73 but FIP – a metric of fielding-independent run prevention – suggests his ERA should be 4.47. His FIP last year was 4.43. The advanced stats think he’s the same pitcher he was last year.
But I contend that he’s not.
Continue reading Monday morning mop-up duty: Jeff Locke laughs in the face of FIP