MILWAUKEE – Yes, the Pirates could have limped into a wild card game by standing pat.
Yes, this was a 90-win roster before Tuesday.
But should the Pirates lose in a wild card play-in game it would erode at least some of the momentum gains of the season. What if there was no playoff game at PNC Park this fall? That would not sit right with a city that has been waiting so long for a taste of October baseball.
After acquiring Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau, the Pirates are in much better position to not only advance to October, but they are in a better possession to capture the division and advance deep into October.
In a vacuum, Byrd and Morneau are not difference makers for any particular team. They are not No. 4 or No. 5 hitters in an above average lineup. But they are potential difference makers for the Pirates.
What do I mean? The importance of Byrd and Morneau comes down to simple math:
**When the Pirates score four or more runs they are 59-14 this season.
**That’s an .808 winning percentage when scoring three or more runs this season.
**Too often the Pirates don’t score at least four runs in a game.
**Right field and first base were the club’s top offensive liabilities.
Yes, four runs is a sort of magic number in baseball. But it is especially so for the Pirates, whose staff is 3.51 ERA in the second half after posting a 3.08 mark in the first half. Even with the slight decline in run prevention, if the Pirates are scoring four runs in a game they are most likely going to win on any given day.
The problem? The Pirates have averaged fewer than four runs per game.
The slight decline in run prevention combined with a stagnant offense led to a 26-26 record in the second half entering the weekend series with St. Louis.
The Pirates don’t need to be great offensively to have a realistic chance to advance deep in October. They simply need to be average.
With an ordinary offense this is a club that can potentially have an extraordinary October.
STARTING NINE THOUGHTS:
9. Yes, much has been made of the Pirates’ anemic offensive and rightfully so. But you could argue the bench was the weakest link of the team, and the trades of the last week have dramatically upgraded this area. Now Garrett Jones and Jose Tabata are not being counted on as everyday players at key offensive-production positions, rather they can perhaps been above average bench assets and platoon pieces.
8. I don’t think chemistry will be an issue going forward. Byrd, John Buck and Morneau are all regarded as plus character guys. Even Jones, who will lose playing time to Morneau, praised Morneau’s character as much as his bat. Give Jones credit for being open to the media regarding his feelings of losing playing time, but also accepting that this is was a week that makes the Pirates better.
(Ironically, Jones was blocked in Minnesota by Morneau earlier in his career leading to his move to the Pirates.)
7. Yes, the Pirates added two impact bats for pennies on the dollar, after waiting for prices to come down following the non-wavier July 31 deadline. The Pirates didn’t give up a single elite prospect. Smart … and fortunate.
Make no mistake, there was risk in not making external additions prior to July 31. It was a gutsy poker play by the Pirates’ FO and it paid off.
6. The week’s events are icing on an incredible layer cake of moves for the Pirates’ front office over the last calendar year. From trading for Mark Melancon to signing Russell Martin and Francisco Liriano, a lot of lever pulls couldn’t have gone better. Neal Huntington has gone from embattled to being a candidate for executive of the year.
Quite a turnaround.
Quite a story.
4. Morneau has homered nine times in August and the Pirates scouts believe a mechanical adjustment has revived his bat. Stay tuned. He’s not the same player he was in 2006 but he can still impact games. If the improvement is for real… this could be a significant addition.
3. I think the biggest concern going forward is club’s pitching depth. With the uncertainty revolving around Wandy Rodriguez, with Jeff Locke’s regression, with Gerrit Cole’s inexperience, there are questions in the back of the rotation.
And any help will have to come internally now, with the Aug. 31 having elapsed.
2. Also concerning is the Pirates have dipped from first in baseball defensive efficiency to third in the NL. What is the root of this? I don’t have any great sense of what’s behind the slip.
1. Most of the focus of the week’s trades has been centered on Byrd and Morneau. But don’t sleep on the impact of Buck as a No. 2 catcher. One scout I spoke with credited Buck with really aiding Matt Harvey’s development. Maybe he can help Cole become Harvey. That would be worth something, no?
STAT OF THE WEEK: 412.2 feet
That’s the average distance home runs off the bat of Marlon Byrd are traveling season, seventh in baseball. Among the names before him? Hunter Pence, Mike Trout, Justin Upton and Giancarlo Stanton.
The 22 home runs are very real.
Byrd claims he’s clean and that a mechanical adjustment has led to the power (more on this later in the week).
HE SAID IT:
“We impacted today without too negatively impacting tomorrow,” Pirates GM Neal Huntington.
In the fewest words possible, Huntington explains what the Pirates pulled off this week.
HE SAID IT II:
Can the Pirates win it all?
“We do (believe that),” Huntington said. “People probably will mock that statement, but we do.”
MODEST PROPOSAL OF THE WEEK:
Nice to see last week’s modest proposal – batting Neil Walker leadoff – was adopted by Clint Hurdle on Sunday. Walker has a .370 OBP vs. right-handed pitching, makes a lot of sense.
But I’ll take it a step further I’d recommend this lineup vs. right-handed pitching – at least until Starling Marte gets healthy:
- Walker, 2b
- McCutchen, cf
- Alvarez, 3b
- Morneau, 1b
- Byrd lf
- G. Jones rf
- Martin, c
- Barmes, ss
That is a much deeper lineup that the Pirates could have fielded a week ago against RHPs.
NON-BASEBALL RECOMMENDATION OF THE WEEK:
(Fill in the blank, here, dear readers … It’s open mic night)