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What’s the value of a late first-round pick? And more Boras

SOUTH HILLS – With a number of significant free agents attached to draft-pick compensation remaining unsigned as we’ve entered full-squad workouts, we wonder are teams overvaluing late first-round draft picks? That’s what we explored in today’s story.

Scott Boras has brought his campaign against over-valuing draft pick to the Tribune-Review. Said Boras of teams being unwilling to part with late first-round or second-round picks for QO’d free agents:

 

“There is a huge failure to evaluate the success ratio that comes with the draft. Signing (Kendrys) Morales for lesser years is a far more valuable than keeping a draft pick. It’s a better decision,” Boras said. ”The failure rate is completely ingnored by teams.  These teams have done things that are statistically off the map.”

 

Is Boras right or is he just selling a client?

 

We’ve previously mentioned the MLB Network study of the 1987-2006 drafts that found just 19.2 percent of players selected outside the top 10 went on to produce 6+ WAR in their careers. (Not exactly a high benchmark to cross and still a low success rate).

 

In today’s paper I studied the 25th overall pick in the draft from 1990-2009 where the Pirates were selecting in the 2014 draft until the Orioles signed Ubaldo Jiminez and surrendered their 17th overall pick. (Assuming Jiminez passes his physical this week, the Pirates will now select 24th overall).

 

Of the 20 players selected at 25th overall from 1990-2009, 12 failed to record at least 150 innings pitched or 500 at bats in the big leagues. Only three - Matt Cain, Mike Trout and Mike MacDougal - became All-Stars, though Matt Garza has also been a productive player. The other four had long careers of below-average production.

 

Boras is right that the success rate is low.

 

In the right situation, for the right player, coughing up the pick makes sense. The Orioles sense their window of opportunity is now with Matt Wieters and Chris Davis approaching free agency. You given up a pick if you can sign a superstar like Robinson Cano. But teams are right to value their best chance to select a cost-controlled star in a era of rising costs in free agency. Teams don’t want to miss on the next Cain or Trout. And Chris Sale, Jose Fernandez and Michael Wacha were each drafted outside the top 10 of the 2010-12 drafts.

 

This is really about opportunity cost.

 

The pick lost to sign Morales or Drew is not likely develop into a quality major leaguer but the opportunity cost of signing Morales is the chance the pick becomes one of the game’s most valuable assets.

 

I think a general rule is this: teams will give up the pick for a proven star. But if you’re weighing baseball’s middle class and even upper-middle class of free agents (like Morales and Drew) that’s a tougher sell. Then surrendering the pick only makes sense if the dollars and years are heavily discounted. Morales might make sense to the Pirates at a Loney-like price. Also, the other consideration clubs likely believe they can beat the historical success rates. (The Cardinals have a right to believe this, I’m not sure about everyone else).

 

Huntington said it was unlikely the club would give up its first-round pick at the winter meeting and in speaking with him earlier this week that still appears to be his position, though he indicated that will change at some point in the future.

 

Huntington: “We recognize that there will come a point in time in the future where we feel good enough about the situation and there is enough projected impact on our club that we are willing to forfeit a draft pick to sign a free agent.”

 

The other interesting thing is of the 22 qualifying offers made is 11 have come from the Yankees and Red Sox and 17 have come from large-market clubs. This has not been a tool utilized much by small-market clubs (See. Burnett, A.J.). I think players will be fighting the OQ in the next negotiation and perhaps some small market owners will be pushing for its elimination as well. It has essentially become a way for the large-market clubs to gain draft picks. That was not the intent of the QO.

 

MORE FROM BORAS …

 

Boras on not evaluating picks in a vacuum:

 

“Unless your strategy has a component and design for a window of winning that is very different than your standard development design,” Boras said, “then most likely, you’re not going to optimize that window.”

 

Boras on the Pirates’ future TV talks:

 

“For television revenues and local media rights it’s worth millions if you’re carrying a winning team into a rights contract. It’s just good business to focus on that window.”

 

Why is Boras being so public in these negotiations? Maybe he’s trying to speak directly to, or pressure, ownership:

 

“Milwaukee last year said ‘We’re not giving up our pick.’ The owner stepped in.  Singed (Kyle) Lohse. The Cleveland owner stepped in and signed (Michael) Bourn. They both got discount in years. Bourn got a market contract. Instead of a five-year deal got a four-year deal. Cleveland was in the playoffs. They took advantage eof a talented player who was out there. You can argue (Cleveland) didn’t have to give up their first-round pick.”

 

Boras is not a fan of evaluating drafts by WAR:

 

“I read this article some gentlemen wrote about the WAR of a player in a draft vs. signing Stephen Drew for example. … What he did was he added the WAR of those draft picks. He added the WAR they accumulated over nine years. That averages out to like 0.7 WAR. That is like a utility player. Would you rather have Stephen Drew for four, five years or (Skip) Schumaker for six. I laugh.”

 

- TS

Comments

  1. Jim S. says:

    I believe the problem for Boras is that teams don’t envision Morales being as good as he has been in the past going forward. He is a .275/.330/.450 hitter the past 2 years, with bad wheels. He’s quite possibly a big liability at 1b right now, and is likely to be more of a liability each succeeding year of that proposed contract. I think that is how NL teams look at him, but his agent views him as a complete player and wants him to be paid that way.

    I have wondered why there has not been more interest in Drew. He has some injury history as well. And, as someone posted on your last blog, not only does he have his own injury history but his brother, JD, had trouble staying on the field as well.

    I’ll bet if Scot Boras did one of his famous analyses on how smart it is for teams to take chances with 3 and 4 year deals on guys with serious injury histories and pay them as though they will get full-time production from them over the life of the contract he would conclude that maybe he is asking for too much for each of his guys.

  2. Nate83 says:

    The problem is he will always only need one team willing to overpay and there is almost always something that happens that makes somebody willing to pay the asking price or at least something close to it. Sometimes injuries happen, sometimes it’s a large market team that is just willing to spend 10-15 a year on a good player and sometimes it’s pressure from the fan base. I’m sure the Orioles felt pressure after Burnett went to the Phillies to do something and they probably overpaid for Jiminez in my opinion.

  3. 21sthebest says:

    I have been thinking that there has been interest in Drew but that Boras/Drew are asking too much.

  4. Jim S. says:

    Good points, Nate. It only takes one team for Boras. I’d hate that Jiminez deal if I were an O’s fan because I know that means other opportunities will be missed as a result – and all for a guy that is more down than up, historically. The O’s don’t throw money around very readily. And, I assume Jiminez was getting a bit worried because most pitchers seem to now want to avoid the O’s due to their medical standards.

  5. JuniataKid says:

    If the QO truly has “become a way for the large-market clubs to gain draft picks,” it’s not going away anytime soon. If it were only benefiting small-market clubs (like paying over slot in the draft), then yes, that would go away.

  6. JohninOshkosh says:

    Yes. The Orioles and Pirates are not similarly situated. The Orioles have room in their budget. They are under pressure to make moves to remain competitive in the AL East. Wieters is certainly headed for free agency and likelihood of affording Davis if he has another monster year is tenuous at best. They definitely see the proverbial window of opportunity starting to close. I think the Pirates window is going to be open for a few more years than the Orioles. I think once Baltimore lost out on AJB, they gave up much desire to hold on to the draft pick.

    Someone acquiring Jiminez doesn’t excite me too much. Then again, neither does acquiring rickety Morales. I was more pumped at the possibility of getting Loney, I player I have always liked. But, alas, that ship has sailed.

    Always interesting to hear from Boras, though. Nice to hear from individuals at the top of their craft as to their thoughts.

  7. Nate83 says:

    Agree Oshkosh.

    I think the Pirates are looking at it as their window is just now opening and they will be competitive for years to come. No need to panic this year and make a move that could prohibit moves in the future when they will hypothetically have more answers and fewer questions. There will be less risk in making such moves at that time.

    I also liked Loney at the right price. He seemed like a good fit for the Pirates and the things they value in a player. I also agree about Boras. I don’t like the guy but certainly respect him for what he is and that is the best agent in baseball. When he speaks it carries a lot of weight even if he is just trying to paint a nicer image of his clients.

  8. NMR says:

    Well said about Boras. Few men alive understand the finances of baseball better than that man.

  9. NorthPirateFan says:

    Am I the only one who sees irony, or maybe it’s utter hypocrisy, in Scott Boras making any of these statements being they right or wrong?

    A guy who’s negotiating tactics on behalf of his first round draft pick client could best be described as a scorched earth campaign telling owners they overvalue the picks? Really?

    So can we expect Boras to capitulate to the owner who says “eh so what if your client was a first round pick you’re over valuing him”

    The mind boggles.

  10. cmat0829 says:

    You know, I’ve been a Boras basher for the most part (and it is at least deserved some of the times), but he is definitely a smart guy who knows how to sell what he is offering. It is interesting to hear how he is positioning Morales and to some extent Drew now (weighing the value of a pick vs. getting the player at BELOW MARKET years or cost), that shows some sense of reasonableness … he has to realize his products aren’t flying off the shelf, not because of the QO, but because the price/performance is out of whack.

    That part of Boras I like… the part of Boras I don’t like is when he indicated that there was NO reason for a young player to sign a contract that gave up FA years, no reason for a ‘win -win’ deal with a team… that part to me is greedy and not at all following the logic he is using to peddle Morales.

    But again, he is a salesman through and through.

    As to the broader question, is it worth it to give up a late first round draft choice to sign a FA? YES and NO. YES if you can get a player that has a value (PROJECTED performance vs. price) that makes sense, factoring in the value loss in giving up the pick… and NO if not. For example, forfeit the pick to sign Stephen Drew for 2 years at $10M per year? NO brainer. Forfeit the pick to sign Morales at 2 years, $10M per year? Ummmmmm……

  11. cmat0829 says:

    It always should be about PROJECTED peformance in determining player value, not PAST performance. Morales is still unsigned because most people in baseball project his performance to be lower than his past performance…and less than the price tag. Everyone / everything has a price. Boras just hasn’t found the price for Morales and Drew yet. And he is not motivated to lower the asking because GMs like Rizzo and owners like the Brewers’ owner (forget his name) are still a phone call away. Though it seems neither is a home for Morales, so it is on the egging the Pirates on.

    Would I like the Bucs to sign Morales? Sure, no more than 2 years, front-end loaded on the $$s, something like $9M in 2014, $6.5M 2015 with incentives…..

  12. JohninOshkosh says:

    It’s a very good point, NPF. And don’t think the GM’s arn’t aware of it.

    Ive always been interested in innovators in business, of which Boras is undeniably one. But, interest doesn’t necessarily equate with admiration. Henry Ford and Walt Disney were both innovators, but not people I would like to hang out with!

  13. Nate83 says:

    His soap box changes as the rules change and that really should be how it is. He is in the business of representing clients and getting them the most money possible. He has very little control over what a first round draft pick gets anymore. The new slotting rules pretty much lock any client he has in the draft into a set payday within 10% or so. There is little value in him overhyping draft picks anymore except for getting them drafted higher which he really has little effect on if any.

  14. pattonbb says:

    Dave Cameron had an interesting take on how to improve the QO system on fangraphs the other day. I’m not sure I agree with his suggestions, but he offered a couple interesting scenarios.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-suggestion-to-improve-the-qualifying-offer-system/

  15. Andrew says:

    An owner overruling his hired management staff in order to sign players with draft pick compensation is not a point in favor of Boras’s argument. Boras is what he it is and does the best for his clients, but he may want to entertain the idea that he is overvaluing the abilities of Drew and Morales.

  16. Jim S. says:

    Well said, Osh.

    I can’t stand Boras, and I think he often talks out of both sides of his mouth. But, I can’t deny that he is never struggling to find clients. He gets results for his clients.

  17. Jim S. says:

    I would take that deal for the Bucs, cmat. But, Morales turned down the $14.1 QO – presumably at Scotty’s urging. I know that ship has sailed, but Boras doesn’t like to admit he screwed up. That would be a colossal screw-up. But, he has painted himself into a corner before, only to slither out. We shall see.

  18. will says:

    He didn’t sang that tune with ..Alvares or Appel..wanting 7 mill or so…

  19. 21sthebest says:

    Everyone including me rips on Boras. But nobody rips on the players that choose him.

  20. will says:

    the best way is to eliminate them completely..if not… just the top x % of 6 yr free agent ..one time only..get a compensation pick..one time ONLY..u sign..after he leaves u get squat..

  21. will says:

    maybe you should look at it a different way..the bucs may like the 30th pick better or #35..so need to consider ALL players that they are going to PASS over. from pick #24 to ..pick maybe # 60 with the compensation pick at the end of the first round..until they pick in the 2nd round..

  22. The Czar says:

    First time posting in a long time. I think the better route is through trade i.e. Smoak, Moreland or Davis. I’d prefer to see them land Justin Smoak. Perhaps he will be our Chris Davis i.e. like the Orioles got when they traded Uehara for him. You never know.
    Excited for our future though. We are set up for sustained success. Let’s Go Bucs!

  23. Steelkings says:

    “”"”"”Boras is right that the success rate is low.”"”"”"

    Not necessarily! Flip that stat around and read it like this:

    Drafting in that spot gives you a 4 in 20 chance in drafting a future All-Star
    OR
    Drafting in that spot gives you a 1 in 20 chance of drafting a Mike Trout

  24. JoeBucco says:

    I think that the biggest thing that Boras is overlooking isn’t the fact that these teams aren’t interested in signing his clients because of the draft pick compensation. It is as much because Morales isn’t that great of a 1B. He’s an AL guy with a weak glove and a bit of a spotty injury history. He hasn’t hit more than 23 HRs in a season since 2009, hasn’t driven in more than 80 runs since the same year, and he’s played 110 games, total, at 1B in the last three years. Does someone really think he’s a guy worth $12m a year and a 1st round pick for an NL team? No way.

    Let’s put it this way… if the Pirates had Morales last year, I doubt the Buccos offer him a qualifying offer.

  25. Ghost says:

    Rather than fret about “failure rate” of draft pick signings Scott Boras decries, lets consider what the Pirates have done with their own number one picks of late. Alvarez made it. Tony Sanchez hasn’t really yet. But he was drafted for the wrong reason: his “signability.” Yet, Sanchez might pan out for us yet. Victor Black is alive and well with the Mets, albeit in their bullpen. The Mets got him from us when we went “all in” and acquired Marlon Byrd. Jameson Taillon looks to be ready to follow in Gerrit Cole’s footsteps. Gerrit Cole is Gerrit Cole. Mark Appel turned into Reese McGuire. And Austin Meadows, at least for now, has everybody excited.
    Though this year we draft lower than we have in decades, it’s still safe to say that if the Pirates seriously pursue the best upside-player available, their first round draft pick is probably not the high “failure rate” crap shoot Boras describes. Maybe the Yankees don’t know how to draft young players, but the Pirates need to trust their instincts here and hold on to their 1st round pick so they can put it to good use.

  26. LeeFoo says:

    JB…I agree with your last statement.

  27. LeeFoo says:

    I wouldn’t take Morales for a mil a year if it cost me that pick. He’s a slow, declining DH.

  28. LeeFoo says:

    Who was more productive? 2013 Tabata or 2013 Alvarez?

    http://saberbucs.com/blog/2014/02/19/how-much-power-do-pirates-need-in-rf/

  29. Arriba Wilver says:

    Who would you rather have? I’d take Pedro.

  30. LeeFoo says:

    AW…good point, but, what if Tabata could play 3B? He’d be a nice platoon partner?

  31. Nate83 says:

    Thanks for the link LeeFoo. I like Tabata and I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do when healthy. He could be a very valuable 4th outfielder when Polanco comes up.

    I know it won’t happen but I’m not sure why Tabata couldn’t give third a try. He couldn’t be much worst then Harrison. If Tabata is a .280 hitter with .340 OBP it would seem to be a waste to only have him take 200-250 at bats as a 4th outfielder. Tampe Bay moves guys all around the diamond but they specifically look for guys capable of doing that. I’m not sure Tabby fits that profile.

    It’s a big year for him. If he plays well his contract is still reasonable especially as a starter for another team and he becomes a valuable trading chip.

  32. Andrew says:

    Interesting take, yes the homeruns overstate Alvarez’s value, but he has been more consistent. Health is a skill, and one the Tabata lacks, additionally over a larger sample Alvarez has performed better.

  33. 21sthebest says:

    If Tabata can play third, and play it without the bat suffering, I’ll take you guys, Lee and Nate, to Morton’s.

  34. NMR says:

    Haha, this reminds me of the “trade for Headley” discussion a few summers ago.

  35. Nate83 says:

    I was mostly joking. Although I don’t see any harm in giving him a try and by try I mean in spring training during drills. If he plays like he did in 2010 and late last season it would be a shame to have a solid offensive player only getting maybe 2 starts a week after Polanco comes up. Somebody has to take Alverez’s at-bats when he sits and as of right now Harrison isn’t an option I’m personally crazy about.

    The Pirates are not a good enough offensive team to have a .340+ OBP guy sitting on the bench and that is why I think he will eventually be traded because he is much more valuable to another team then he is to the Pirates who can’t justify him being part of an everyday outfield when Polanco comes up.

  36. Jim S. says:

    I’d say it’s a little tougher finding a guy to do what Pedro does than a guy who does what Tabata does.

  37. Jim S. says:

    I think the position switch from OF to 3b is a rough one. Not saying it can’t be done with the right guy. But, Tabata isn’t even a particularly good RF.

    But, I’m all for JHay pursuing his life’s work with another team.

  38. Steelkings says:

    And even more importantly, and from a more personal scale, How many corner outfielders do the Pirates have compared to corner infielders?

  39. Steelkings says:

    Im not exactly sold on the fact that when Polanco comes up in June he auto inherits right field. If the team is rolling and Tabata is playing well, it may be Polanco who plays every third day. Or comes in the game in the 7th or 8th to play some D and get a stick or two.

  40. Jim S. says:

    Or, plays vs. RHP only for awhile?

  41. Jim S. says:

    But, if he’s not going to play at least “most” of the time, why bring him up? In that case, let him stay at AAA longer.

  42. Steelkings says:

    I agree with the position change statement, but I think the Pirates have to keep a guy like J-hay simply because he can run. Which saying J-hay can run is an over statement in itself, but J-Hay is faster than most everyone else.;)

  43. Jim S. says:

    Yeah, we have plenty of LF/RF candidates.

  44. Steelkings says:

    On a selfish side Im all for Polanco staying in AAA. I live in Indy. I’m excited about opening day. Polanco in CF and Taillon on the bump….Bring it baby! :)

  45. Steelkings says:

    Too bad he doesn’t play 1st, Huh?

  46. NMR says:

    UGH, don’t get me started. Josh Harrison is proof that good runners aren’t necessarilly good baserunners.

    I’ll take Pedro’s baserunning skills over Harrison’s all day.

  47. Jim S. says:

    We lived in Indy for about 2 years (2002-2004), Steel. Moved from Chicago area, then moved back here after.

    We loved Indy. Lived in Fishers, near the Geist Reservoir. Everyone was so nice. My wife, who is from Chicago, was hesitant at first to move there. Cried and said she would miss her family, wouldn’t have any friends, etc. 22 months later we were moving back to Chicagoland, and she was crying about how she did not want to leave Indy. All 3 of our kids were very young. What a great time in our lives. Absolutely loved Indy.

  48. NMR says:

    Travis,

    Any idea why the Pirates aren’t in on Cuban shortstop prospect Almendys Diaz?

  49. Jim S. says:

    I wondered that myself. Is he already priced out of their comfort zone? I heard the Cards are interested.

  50. brendan says:

    I don’t think it’s especially useful to determine the value of the 25th pick based on the players selected with it but rather the players that realistically could be selected with it (incidentally since the O’s relinquished their pick to sign Jimenez, the Pirates now have the 24th pick correct?).

    That is to say Team X may have picked Player A with the 25th pick in 2004 but they may have done for a number of reasons: financial limitations, drafting for need, etc.

    If you’re confident in the Pirates amateur scouting–I’m becoming more confident–here’s sampling of players who were drafted in the first round (including the comp picks) with the 25th pick or later since 2000:

    Robert Stephenson, Henry Owens, Jackie Bradley Jr, Noah Syndergaard, Taijuan Walker, Mike Trout, Nick Franklin, Lance Lynn, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, Josh Donaldson, Travis d’Arnaud, Jed Lowrie, Clay Buchholz, Colby Rasmus, Matt Garza, Gio Gonzalez, Carlos Quentin, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Adam Jones, Matt Cain, David Wright, Adam Wainwright, Kelly Johnson.

    Odds are against getting an impact player once you reach the back half of the first round that’s for sure. But if you look back at prior draft there are almost always a few players who go on to be useful major leaguers at the very least.

  51. Steelkings says:

    Yes, Its a nice city. Little chilly this year for my tastes. I’m in south Carmel. Or since you had small children and its every parent duty to know where all the hospitals are, we live a 1/2 mile from St Vincents.

  52. Travis Sawchik says:

    Not sure. I’ll ask around

  53. Travis Sawchik says:

    To be fair, in talking with Boras, he did talk about how top 10 picks were much more valuable.

  54. Steelkings says:

    NMR,
    They said he looked great in work outs with the cards. His BP was terrific. Scout like him as a young Derrick Jeter. I’m really surprised the Yankees were not on him, more than I was that the Pirates were not. It appears he will be signed by this afternoon. The Card GM is very outspoken about it. Diaz will play short and Peralta will move to 3rd. Carpenter to 2nd and Wong and Ellis fighting for a bench spot.

    The reason the Pirates are not in on him is that the bidding starts at a cool 25 Million a year, and he’s looking for 4 years. And he still has several suitors.

  55. Steelkings says:

    You’ve seen Pedro run? Usually the only times he gets on base, all he has to do is jog.

  56. NMR says:

    I keep trying to fit a trip to Carmel into a vacation somewhere along the line.

    I’m a transportation nerd, and Carmel is awesome!

  57. NMR says:

    Pedro is one of the best baserunners the Pirates have.

  58. Steelkings says:

    Ha Ha! I was sitting behind the Pirates dugout in cincy when he hit a triple. He gave the “Z” sign to the dugout and then put both hands on is knees. The whole dugout started laughing.

  59. NMR says:

    You still aren’t treating baserunning as a skill.

  60. NMR says:

    And out of how many total picks were those players procured?

    The real issue here is odds. Of course good players can be had later in round one and after. But not a single team in major league history has been able to hit on these guys with any sort of frequency.

    The odds of a player requiring draft pick compensation being above average is incredibly higher than the odds of a draft pick reaching the same status.

  61. NMR says:

    Thanks, gents.

    Still don’t think this FO would know a good shortstop from a hole in the ground.

  62. Steelkings says:

    Ok…Fine…Since you are MAKING me go there, NRM.

    Not counting HR’s he only had 24 extra base hits. He hit .233 and had an OBP under .300. How did you ever see him run enough to claim his crown as one of the best base runners the Pirates have? Did you learn this watching him run back to the dugout after striking out 186 times?

    Pedro (Vince Coleman) Alverez has less career stolen Bases than I have fingers on my left hand.

  63. Steelkings says:

    Now…Marte would be one of the best base runners in MB, if he would tuck his chin. He starts head up which makes his first step slow. Too tall. If he would get his chin down he would be au -to-ma-tic.

  64. NMR says:

    If you can’t see Pedro’s reactions and anticipation around the bases, I can’t help you.

  65. Steelkings says:

    Like I was saying way up yonder. If you look at it backwards the odds are quite different. 1-20 to get a Trout. 4 in 20 to get a future all-star. Better odds than Powerball ( 1 -175 million) huh?
    yet if you get a Trout that sells out your ball park and other stuff, by the time its over, the payout could be much the same as the Powerball jack pot. That’s why owners don’t want you messing with their lottery ticket.

    There is only two ways you get those kind of guys. Draft them or pay out the nose.

  66. Steelkings says:

    His skills are good, I’ll admit that. However he doesnt get on base enough for it to matter.

  67. Jim S. says:

    Just the other day, I thought I heard NH say Jeter was a HOF SS. :-)

  68. Jim S. says:

    FWIW, the Cardinals have not exactly been a SS factory lately.

  69. Jim S. says:

    I know S. Carmel pretty well – or, at least I did. It was either end up in Carmel or Fishers when we moved there. Also considered Zionsville for a bit.

    I think we ended up at that hospital the first week there, when we were in temp housing near there. Our oldest was just starting 1st grade. My wife dropped her off, and about 2 hours later she got a call from the school nurse explaining that she had fallen off the monkey bars. Ended up with a broken arm. Showing off for the new kids, of course.

  70. Jim S. says:

    Carmel is a nice suburb, NMR. So is Fishers. So is Zionsville. I liked that Indy’s idea of evening rush hour was 20 extra minutes on the 465 beltway. I miss that now.

  71. Steelkings says:

    Yes on your trip to Carmel you could enjoy the…….Huh…..Well in Indy you could always spend time at the…??…. You know, Jim. There is a reason there is no traffic on 465 ;)

  72. brendan says:

    I’m nsuggesting the odds are better necessarily just that method in question, judging the value of the 25th pick (or whatever the pick ends up being) based on who was selected 25th previously seems flawed to me.

  73. brendan says:

    “not suggesting” that is

  74. brendan says:

    the other meaningful issue is that under the current draft system, you’re not only relinquishing the pick but decreasing the overall pool of money you can allocate to the draft.

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