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If Bill O’Brien left Penn State after this season it would have Donovan Smith-sized ramifications on the football program.
It is not inconceivable that Penn State would experience a fall as precipitous as SMU did after the NCAA gave the latter the death penalty in the 1980s – and that it might take as long as a decade to recover.
That is how important O’Brien has been in holding the program together in the aftermath of draconian NCAA sanctions.
The Nittany Lions are 6-4 without a signature victory, but they have a good chance at an eight-win season.
That would have been unthinkable after an opportunistic hypocrite doubling as the NCAA president used a criminal matter to strafe the football program in some misguided attempt to flex his muscles (think Gilbert Gottfried admiring his biceps in a mirror) and destroy a culture that has consistently produced higher graduate rates among football players than regular students.
O’Brien, as when he was hired last January to replace Joe Paterno, has said and mostly done all of the right things during the most tumultuous period in Penn State football history. He seems to be made for the job of keeping Penn State competitive and relevant as it weathers sanctions that include a four-year ban on postseason play and a loss of scholarships.
The challenge is one he has embraced, and the only reason why there is a question of whether O’Brien will ultimately see it through is because of what he said earlier this week.
Or rather what he didn’t say.
O’Brien was twice asked about speculation that an NFL team will pursue him as a head coach in the offseason. Both times he said his focus is on Indiana, the team that gave up 564 rushing yards last week in a 48-point loss to visiting Wisconsin.
O’Brien’s non-answer in regard to the NFL heightened anxiety among Nittany Lions fans and with good reason. The former Patriots offensive coordinator left an opening, and if the right NFL opportunity presents itself O’Brien would be crazy not to at least listen.
This situation, it should be noted, is in no way comparable to what happened at Pitt last year where Todd Graham left after one season for Arizona State and cemented his reputation as a snake-oil salesman.
Graham never took to Pittsburgh.
He seemed irritated that the Panthers share a practice facility with the Steelers, something most coaches would see as a positive. He also resisted overtures from Steelers coach Mike Tomlin to help him become part of the fabric of a blue-collar city that is passionate about sports and especially football.
O’Brien is the complete opposite.
He and his wife have embraced State College and become involved in the community. O’Brien has also struck the proper balance between respecting (and keeping) longstanding football traditions while also creating new ones. He seems nothing but genuine when he talks about what a special place Penn State is, and there is absolutely no indication that O’Brien is eyeing a return to the NFL.
I would be really, really surprised if O’Brien left after this season.
Shocked? Not so much.
Look at what Greg Schiano has done in turning around Tampa Bay after experiencing moderate success at Rutgers and tell me O’Brien isn’t high on the radar of teams that are already resigned to make a coaching change in the offseason.
O’Brien has proven he can do more than coach a finished (and Hall of Fame) product at quarterback in Tom Brady. Matt McGloin’s transformation is proof of that.
O’Brien has also shown he is adept at crisis management, something that is a requirement of head coaches at the next level given the confluence of egos, money and immaturity in NFL locker rooms.
I’m not sure any team can offer the right package of money, authority an opportunity (i.e. a chance to win right away) to lure O’Brien away from what appears to be his dream job.
But all it takes is one.